The 54% net-tariff on Chinese imports is already causing ripple effects throughout the Bitcoin mining industry. Should this tariff hold, we expect the following second order effects:
The duopoly of Chinese ASIC manufacturers Bitmain and MicroBT will almost certainly result in the import tax being passed onto the consumers (US-based miners). ,Consequently, prices are rising even for machines ~already located in the United States.~ In fact, US-based machines already carry a price premium (less time between purchase and hashing), and tariffs are going to cause this premium to expand.
Moreover, tariffs are likely to cause a slowdown in ASIC orders from the manufacturers – which in turn will lead to a slowdown in the growth of the Bitcoin network hashrate / mining difficulty.
Check out this YouTube video on the Blockware channel for an in-depth explanation:
Miner Revenue per Terahash (hashprice) is now at ~$0.042/Th/Day – the lowest level since September. During this market environment it’s crucial for miners to use the most efficient machines possible. Combined with the tariffs on China, this creates an environment that will likely result in an increase in ASIC prices.
Here’s the current ‘cost of production’ for various Bitcoin mining machines (based on an electricity rate of $0.078/kWh). Margins are getting crunched for mid-generation machines. However, the S21 series remains highly profitable despite the drop in hashprice.
As mentioned earlier, the comparative advantage of next-generation machines could result in an even higher $/Th premium for these machines as miners look to unload older hardware and purchase the more efficient miners.
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